Monday, November 23, 2020

COVID Disinformation: The Anatomy of a Rumor

USA Today routinely fact checks statements made by the media to sort out fact from fiction and information from disinformation. These articles always include references to sources so that you can investigate further and determine the reliability of your own sources of information.

In this Fact Check article, “COVID-19 vaccine recommendations don't link government aid to immunization” by Brinley Hineman, 11/22/20, the reporter tracks down the sources of a false rumor spread on Instagram to discredit the Biden administration’s Corona virus task force. It claims falsely that the Biden Administration will withhold food stamps and other assistance from people who refuse to be vaccinated.

“A screenshot of a Distributed News article posted on Instagram last week wrongly claims that a member of Biden's recently assembled task force recommended withholding food stamps and aid from those who refuse to get the COVID-19 vaccine when it's available.

“The post was shared on Instagram by Angela Stanton-King, who was released from federal prison after being pardoned by President Donald Trump in February after she gave birth while incarcerated.

“She ran for Congress as a Republican in the late-Rep. John Lewis' district in Georgia and was defeated by Georgia Democratic Party Chair Nikema Williams. Stanton-King calls herself a criminal justice expert and is a former reality television star.” 

According to the article, the Website Distributed News routinely publishes false information: “The website's post incorrectly says that Dr. Luciana Borio, an infectious disease doctor who is part of Biden's task force, wants to bar people who refuse the vaccine from receiving food stamps and rent assistant.”

The Website falsely states that Dr. Borio is a CIA-linked operative. It sites a paper by a task force unaffiliated with the Biden campaign of which Borio was a member. The task force wrote a report that recommends partnering with organizations already offering services to vulnerable populations to “…to build trust and streamline vaccine provision…” 

“The paper doesn't mention withholding needed aid at all. “

Be prepared for more of this in the weeks to come.

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Read more: Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris outline their approach to curbing the pandemic on Biden's website.
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Monday, November 16, 2020

Scientific Brief from the CDC on using masks to control the spread of the Covid-19 virus


 From the Website of the Centers for Disease Control, 11/10/20

Scientific Brief: Community Use of Cloth Masks to Control the Spread of SARS-CoV-2
Updated Nov. 10, 2020


The brief includes 45 references to substantiate the CDC claims about wearing masks. Link to the Website to see the complete article with references. Here is the brief:

Background

SARS-CoV-2 infection is transmitted predominately by respiratory droplets generated when people cough, sneeze, sing, talk, or breathe. CDC recommends community use of masks, specifically non-valved multi-layer cloth masks, to prevent transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Masks are primarily intended to reduce the emission of virus-laden droplets (“source control”), which is especially relevant for asymptomatic or presymptomatic infected wearers who feel well and may be unaware of their infectiousness to others, and who are estimated to account for more than 50% of transmissions.1,2 [emphasis added] Masks also help reduce inhalation of these droplets by the wearer (“filtration for personal protection”). The community benefit of masking for SARS-CoV-2 control is due to the combination of these effects; individual prevention benefit increases with increasing numbers of people using masks consistently and correctly.

Source Control to Block Exhaled Virus 

Multi-layer cloth masks block release of exhaled respiratory particles into the environment,3-6 along with the microorganisms these particles carry.7,8 Cloth masks not only effectively block most large droplets (i.e., 20-30 microns and larger)9 but they can also block the exhalation of fine droplets and particles (also often referred to as aerosols) smaller than 10 microns ;3,5 which increase in number with the volume of speech10-12 and specific types of phonation.13 Multi-layer cloth masks can both block up to 50-70% of these fine droplets and particles3,14 and limit the forward spread of those that are not captured.5,6,15,16 Upwards of 80% blockage has been achieved in human experiments that have measured blocking of all respiratory droplets,4 with cloth masks in some studies performing on par with surgical masks as barriers for source control.3,9,14

Filtration for Personal Protection 

Studies demonstrate that cloth mask materials can also reduce wearers’ exposure to infectious droplets through filtration, including filtration of fine droplets and particles less than 10 microns. The relative filtration effectiveness of various masks has varied widely across studies, in large part due to variation in experimental design and particle sizes analyzed. Multiple layers of cloth with higher thread counts have demonstrated superior performance compared to single layers of cloth with lower thread counts, in some cases filtering nearly 50% of fine particles less than 1 micron.14,17-29 Some materials (e.g., polypropylene) may enhance filtering effectiveness by generating triboelectric charge (a form of static electricity) that enhances capture of charged particles18,30 while others (e.g., silk) may help repel moist droplets31 and reduce fabric wetting and thus maintain breathability and comfort.

Human Studies of Masking and SARS-CoV-2 Transmission 

Data regarding the “real-world” effectiveness of community masking are limited to observational and epidemiological studies.

  • An investigation of a high-exposure event, in which 2 symptomatically ill hair stylists interacted for an average of 15 minutes with each of 139 clients during an 8-day period, found that none of the 67 clients who subsequently consented to an interview and testing developed infection. The stylists and all clients universally wore masks in the salon as required by local ordinance and company policy at the time.32
  • In a study of 124 Beijing households with > 1 laboratory-confirmed case of SARS-CoV-2 infection, mask use by the index patient and family contacts before the index patient developed symptoms reduced secondary transmission within the households by 79%.33
  • A retrospective case-control study from Thailand documented that, among more than 1,000 persons interviewed as part of contact tracing investigations, those who reported having always worn a mask during high-risk exposures experienced a greater than 70% reduced risk of acquiring infection compared with persons who did not wear masks under these circumstances.34
  • A study of an outbreak aboard the USS Theodore Roosevelt, an environment notable for congregate living quarters and close working environments, found that use of face coverings on-board was associated with a 70% reduced risk.35
  • Investigations involving infected passengers aboard flights longer than 10 hours strongly suggest that masking prevented in-flight transmissions, as demonstrated by the absence of infection developing in other passengers and crew in the 14 days following exposure.36,37

Seven studies have confirmed the benefit of universal masking in community level analyses: in a unified hospital system,38 a German city,39 a U.S. state,40 a panel of 15 U.S. states and Washington, D.C.,41,42 as well as both Canada43 and the U.S.44 nationally. Each analysis demonstrated that, following directives from organizational and political leadership for universal masking, new infections fell significantly. Two of these studies42,44 and an additional analysis of data from 200 countries that included the U.S.45 also demonstrated reductions in mortality. An economic analysis using U.S. data found that, given these effects, increasing universal masking by 15% could prevent the need for lockdowns and reduce associated losses of up to $1 trillion or about 5% of gross domestic product.42  [emphasis added]

Conclusions 

Experimental and epidemiological data support community masking to reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2. The prevention benefit of masking is derived from the combination of source control and personal protection for the mask wearer. The relationship between source control and personal protection is likely complementary and possibly synergistic14, so that individual benefit increases with increasing community mask use. Further research is needed to expand the evidence base for the protective effect of cloth masks and in particular to identify the combinations of materials that maximize both their blocking and filtering effectiveness, as well as fit, comfort, durability, and consumer appeal. Adopting universal masking policies can help avert future lockdowns, especially if combined with other non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing, hand hygiene, and adequate ventilation. [emphasis added]

Thursday, November 5, 2020

2020 Election misinformation and disinformation continued…

In a follow-up to warnings about election misinformation and disinformation in Michigan, we are now experiencing both as Michigan’s vote count comes to an end. 

Manufactured Outrage - Biden is not magically finding votes

One of the latest reports of manufactured outrage, turns out to have been promulgated on Twitter by the chair of Texas' Travis County Republican Party Matt Mackowiak [see “No, Joe Biden did not magically 'find' votes in Michigan” by Clara Hendrickson and Kristi Tanner from the Detroit Free Press, 11/4/2020]

From the Detroit Free Press:

“A since deleted tweet posted by Matt Mackowiak, a conservative commentator and chair of Texas' Travis County Republican Party, appears to show that during one results update in Michigan, Joe Biden received 100% of newly counted votes. Attached to the tweet were two election maps appearing to show election results from earlier in the count and one from later. Mackowiak said he took the screenshots early this morning. Mackowiak acknowledged the posts were inaccurate. He has since deleted the tweet, explaining, 'I have now learned the MI update referenced was a typo in one county.'"

Giving credit where it is due, the Texas official deleted his tweet when he learned that it was based on a quickly corrected clerical error, but not before President Trump retweeted the misinformation to his millions of followers.

The maps shared by Mackowiak came from Decision Desk HQ, an election data company. The data company corrected a tweet posted with the false information and explained the mistake:  

"'This morning there was a clerical error in the Shiawassee, MI county presidential data.' The company explained, 'Once we identified the error, we cleared the erroneous data and updated it with the correct data as provided by officials. We stand by our data as reflected on results.decisiondeskhq.com.'"

Also from the article, “An hour-by-hour update from Associated Press data shows that there was no point in time when Trump did not post an increase in votes.” 

Chaos at the TCF vote counting center in Detroit

In another account of election confusion, “Chaos erupts at TCF Center as Republican vote challengers cry foul in Detroit” by Tresa Baldas, Kristen Jordan Shamus, Niraj Warikoo, and Evan Petzold,  from the Detroit Free Press,11/04/2020:

“A chaotic scene erupted outside the vote tally room at TCF Center in Detroit on Wednesday as election officials informed dozens of challengers that they could not reenter the room due to it being at capacity.  

“People gathered outside the ballot-counting area pounded on the doors and windows, shouting, “Let us in” and “Stop the count” as only about a half-dozen tables continued to count ballots on the day after Election Day.

“Police had to push back the crowds as they argued to be allowed in the vote-counting area. Republican counters shouted that they were unfairly being kept out, but Democratic challengers countered that it was not true because they were also being kept outside.”

The situation was exacerbated by Covid restrictions on the number of people who could be in the counting center at one time. Officials were letting 134 people from each of three groups contesting the vote, Republicans, Democrats, and non-partisan challengers. “But early on Wednesday, about 400 challengers were freely roaming the room as poll workers counted the 25,000 absentee ballots from Detroiters.” 

Vote counters were concerned about intimidation with people taking pictures of them and the counting process. Some of the challengers were falsely telling vote counters they had to stop counting because a lawsuit had been filed by the Republicans, but there had been no injunction to stop counting nor was there any reason to believe that the counters were engaged in voter or election fraud.

“Several lawyers asserted that the trouble started when GOP challengers tried to intimidate poll workers. And they were removed because they either took their masks off, got too close to the poll counters, tried to take pictures or got verbally aggressive.”

The confusion created by swarms of people descending on the TCF Center in Detroit during the counting of votes makes it difficult to sort out exactly what was happening and to whom. But anyone claiming to see a conspiracy in all this for massive voter or election fraud should have to watch the video below of the Livonia, Michigan, City Clerk Susan Nash as she demonstrates what happens when mailed absentee ballots arrive at city hall.

In my experience, local election officials in Michigan who are in charge of guarding against voter and election fraud are the nerdiest of upright citizens, determined to follow the rules in a fair, balanced, and transparent process that should be reassuring to the rest of us that the processing of absentee or mail-in ballots is in good hands.


Monday, November 2, 2020

Be prepared for election misinformation and disinformation

Gird yourselves for the coming onslaught of misinformation and disinformation between now, the day before the 2020 election ends, and the final results come in. It is possible that if there are legal challenges to election results, the surge of false reports, lies, and misleading images will continue. 

An article in the Detroit Free Press, "Heads up, Michigan. Here's what disinformation experts are watching for on Election Day" by Ashley Nerbovig, 11/02/20,  covers the kinds of misinformation and disinformation you may be subjected to: 

"Given attempts like these [photos and videos of long lines at polling places, stories declaring unofficial winners, and claims of voter fraud] to mislead or deter voters ahead of the election and the possibility that no presidential race winner will be declared on Election Day, researchers and experts on disinformation advise Michiganders to be extra careful about where their information comes from in the next few weeks.

"Misinformation is false information shared by accident or without the knowledge it is false. Disinformation is when someone deliberately creates or shares information that is incorrect to inflict damage, such as telling people the wrong date of the election. Learning what this can look like can slow the spread of false information."

According to the article, researchers with the University of Washington's Election Integrity Project created a list of what to expect in coming weeks:

  • Uncertainty, anxiety and the potential that red-to-blue or blue-to-red shifts will create opportunities to delegitimize the election results. 
  • Efforts to deter voting with images and videos of long lines, COVID-19 dangers and protests.   
  • Voting process problems that may be strategically framed and overemphasized to fit misleading narratives.  
  • Claims of disenfranchisement will be highlighted and there may be false evidence and narratives of voter fraud.
  • Social media companies that take action to address election-related misinformation will be accused of censorship. 
  • Lost or found post-election ballots will be politicized.
  • Allegations of foreign interference will be made.  

"To slow the spread of false information, avoid sharing early results from candidates or armchair data scientists. "

This all sounds like good advice to me. Stay calm and consult trusted sources of information. 

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See also, "Know your voting rights..." by Josh Peter, USA Today, 10/28/20